How will your school respond to falling student numbers?
Not only do we have a teacher recruitment crisis internationally, but the child population across the UK continues to decline, and is projected to fall over the next 10 years. I would expect the government to reduce investment to match demand, and we will need to be compassionate to how school leaders respond.
A significant fall in student numbers
This new IFS report highlights the long-term impact of demographic change on school numbers and funding across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The UK is set to experience a significant fall in student numbers over the next decade—projected at 11% in England by 2030.
Drawing on historical case studies from the 1970s and 1980s, the report identifies key lessons for school planning, teacher recruitment, and funding allocations during periods of decline.
The report shows that past demographic downturns caused delays in reducing class sizes, rationalising the school estate, and reallocating resources. When student numbers decline, school budgets shrink—but staff costs remain fixed, leading to tough decisions.
If schools and local authorities are not supported to respond strategically, inequalities may widen. Understanding the patterns from history provides teachers and leaders with foresight for what may unfold.
Image: Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2025
Changing community needs; act not
Teachers and school leaders should anticipate future recruitment challenges and curriculum breadth concerns. Collaboration between schools could help maintain provision and reduce costs. National and local decision-makers must act early—particularly to support rural and small schools which are likely to be hit hardest. Professional development should include demographic literacy, helping schools to prepare for slower growth, declining intakes, and changing community needs.
Reflection questions for leaders
- Is your school leader aware of local demographic trends?
- How could falling rolls impact teacher recruitment in the next 5 years?
- What subjects might become unviable with fewer students?
- Can schools collaborate to share staff or facilities?
- How should initial teacher training respond to long-term regional shifts?
- What can history teach schools about funding reductions?
- How might SEND provision be affected in smaller settings?
- What does this mean for school closures or mergers?
- Are governing boards aware and prepared for roll decline?
- How should national policymakers avoid repeating past mistakes?
The research concludes
The current system in England is highly complicated, given the fragmentation of responsibilities across councils, academy trusts and the Department for Education. A coherent process is needed for making decisions on school closures and school places.
We should start to make considerations now.
Download the full paper to explore the full detail.
